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CLOCK STAGE ANALYSIS: Auction 108 Summary (2500 MHz Band)

General Auction Statistics at End of Round 46:
Qualified Bidders (Clock Phase): 82
Products with Demand > Supply: 355
Products with Demand = Supply: 7515
Products with Demand < Supply: 147
Products with No Demand:
(subset of Products with Demand < Supply)
147
Total Provisionally Sold Products: 7870
Total Unsold Products: 147

County-Level Statistics at the End of Round 46:
Counties with Demand > Supply: 301
Counties with Demand = Supply: 2444
Counties with Demand < Supply: 59
Counties with No Demand:
(subset of Counties with Demand < Supply)
44
Largest County (by Population) with Demand Change: Oneida
Nationwide Gross Proceeds by Category at End of Round 46:
All Categories $371,914,990
Category C1: $136,594,470
Category C2: $181,581,150
Category C3: $53,739,370

Minimum Proceeds Required to Purchase One Block Nationwide at End of Round 46:
Any Category: $56,969,240


Nationwide Price Per MHz-POP Statistics at End of Round 46:(1)
Based on 2010 Census Data Based on 2020 Census Data(2)
Average Across All Categories: $0.016260 $0.015205
Category C1: $0.014619 $0.013666
Category C2: $0.017374 $0.016238
Category C3: $0.017457 $0.016238
(1) The prices per MHz POP provided on this site assumes that the all POPs within these county-sized licenses are unencumbered.
As an overlay auction, this is the approach the FCC took. This is not the price per MHz-POP based on truly unencumbered POPs.
Please read the section below called "Deep Dive: Channel Availability in 2.5 GHz Overlay Licenses" for additional details on
the level of encumbrances found in each license.
(2) Because the FCC released its data for this auction using 2010 Census Data,
we use 2010 Census population estimates except where explicitly stated otherwise (as is the case here).

Price Comparison Only in Counties with All Categories Available at End of Round 46:
Based on 2010 Census Data
Category C1: $0.015915
Category C2: $0.019899
Category C3: $0.017302




Snapshot of Aggregate Demand

(A Preview of Demand Analysis Below)





Price Per MHz-POP Analysis
Average Price Per MHz-POP in Each County after Round 46: (average across all categories in each county)

Click Here for Interactive Map & Prices for Each Category





Price Per MHz-POP for All Products in 20 Largest Counties by Population after Round 46:
fips_code county_name state population category aggregate_demand posted_price supply gross_proceeds price_mhz_pop
06037 Los Angeles CA 9,818,605 C3 1 $900,000 1 $900,000 $0.005238
06037 Los Angeles CA 9,818,605 C1 1 $2,900,000 1 $2,900,000 $0.005967
06037 Los Angeles CA 9,818,605 C2 1 $2,900,000 1 $2,900,000 $0.005849
17031 Cook IL 5,194,675 C1 0 $1,500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
17031 Cook IL 5,194,675 C2 0 $1,500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
17031 Cook IL 5,194,675 C3 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48201 Harris TX 4,092,459 C2 0 $1,200,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48201 Harris TX 4,092,459 C3 0 $400,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48201 Harris TX 4,092,459 C1 0 $1,200,000 1 $0 $0.000000
04013 Maricopa AZ 3,817,117 C1 1 $1,100,000 1 $1,100,000 $0.005822
04013 Maricopa AZ 3,817,117 C2 1 $1,100,000 1 $1,100,000 $0.005706
04013 Maricopa AZ 3,817,117 C3 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.004491
06073 San Diego CA 3,095,313 C1 0 $900,000 1 $0 $0.000000
06073 San Diego CA 3,095,313 C2 0 $900,000 1 $0 $0.000000
06073 San Diego CA 3,095,313 C3 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005538
12086 Miami-Dade FL 2,496,435 C1 0 $700,000 1 $0 $0.000000
12086 Miami-Dade FL 2,496,435 C2 1 $700,000 1 $700,000 $0.005552
12086 Miami-Dade FL 2,496,435 C3 1 $294,000 1 $294,000 $0.006730
06065 Riverside CA 2,189,641 C2 1 $600,000 1 $600,000 $0.005426
06065 Riverside CA 2,189,641 C1 0 $600,000 1 $0 $0.000000
06065 Riverside CA 2,189,641 C3 1 $200,000 1 $200,000 $0.005219
06071 San Bernardino CA 2,035,210 C1 1 $600,000 1 $600,000 $0.005956
06071 San Bernardino CA 2,035,210 C3 1 $200,000 1 $200,000 $0.005615
06071 San Bernardino CA 2,035,210 C2 1 $600,000 1 $600,000 $0.005838
32003 Clark NV 1,951,269 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.002928
32003 Clark NV 1,951,269 C2 1 $500,000 1 $500,000 $0.005074
32003 Clark NV 1,951,269 C1 1 $500,000 1 $500,000 $0.005177
53033 King WA 1,931,249 C2 1 $500,000 1 $500,000 $0.005127
53033 King WA 1,931,249 C1 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
53033 King WA 1,931,249 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.002959
06085 Santa Clara CA 1,781,642 C1 1 $500,000 1 $500,000 $0.005669
06085 Santa Clara CA 1,781,642 C2 1 $500,000 1 $500,000 $0.005557
12011 Broward FL 1,748,066 C1 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
12011 Broward FL 1,748,066 C3 0 $100,000 1 $0 $0.000000
12011 Broward FL 1,748,066 C2 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48029 Bexar TX 1,714,773 C1 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48029 Bexar TX 1,714,773 C2 0 $500,000 1 $0 $0.000000
48029 Bexar TX 1,714,773 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.003332
25017 Middlesex MA 1,503,085 C1 0 $400,000 1 $0 $0.000000
25017 Middlesex MA 1,503,085 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.003802
25017 Middlesex MA 1,503,085 C2 0 $400,000 1 $0 $0.000000
36103 Suffolk NY 1,493,350 C1 1 $400,000 1 $400,000 $0.005411
36103 Suffolk NY 1,493,350 C2 1 $400,000 1 $400,000 $0.005304
36103 Suffolk NY 1,493,350 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.003826
06067 Sacramento CA 1,418,788 C2 0 $400,000 1 $0 $0.000000
06067 Sacramento CA 1,418,788 C1 0 $400,000 1 $0 $0.000000
12099 Palm Beach FL 1,320,134 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.004329
12099 Palm Beach FL 1,320,134 C1 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.004591
12099 Palm Beach FL 1,320,134 C2 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.004500
26125 Oakland MI 1,202,362 C3 1 $100,000 1 $100,000 $0.004753
26125 Oakland MI 1,202,362 C1 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005041
26125 Oakland MI 1,202,362 C2 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.004941
12095 Orange FL 1,145,956 C1 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005289
12095 Orange FL 1,145,956 C2 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005184
06013 Contra Costa CA 1,049,025 C1 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005777
06013 Contra Costa CA 1,049,025 C2 1 $300,000 1 $300,000 $0.005663

20 Most Expensive Counties by Price Per MHz-POP after Round 46: (ave. for all categories)
fips_code county_name population price_mhz_pop
48443 Terrell 984 $1.280055
46021 Campbell 1,466 $1.114046
46049 Faulk 2,364 $0.960867
49009 Daggett 1,059 $0.945894
46089 McPherson 2,459 $0.923745
46107 Potter 2,329 $0.759709
60040 Swains Island 17 $0.750939
46045 Edmunds 4,071 $0.721031
20017 Chase 2,790 $0.706719
29103 Knox 4,131 $0.701297
40025 Cimarron 2,475 $0.701139
69120 Tinian 3,136 $0.618758
20111 Lyon 33,690 $0.574354
28055 Issaquena 1,406 $0.552647
69100 Rota 2,527 $0.516296
46129 Walworth 5,438 $0.497523
20195 Trego 3,001 $0.481825
35006 Cibola 27,213 $0.471614
40139 Texas 20,640 $0.469652
20031 Coffey 8,601 $0.468031


20 Most Expensive Products by Price Per MHz-POP after Round 46: (any category)
fips_code county_name state population category aggregate_demand posted_price supply gross_proceeds price_mhz_pop
48443 Terrell TX 984 C3 1 $51,000 1 $51,000 $2.961672
60040 Swains Island AS 17 C3 1 $500 1 $500 $1.680672
49009 Daggett UT 1,059 C2 2 $85,000 1 $85,000 $1.589394
46021 Campbell SD 1,466 C3 1 $36,900 1 $36,900 $1.438316
28055 Issaquena MS 1,406 C2 2 $85,000 1 $85,000 $1.197133
46021 Campbell SD 1,466 C2 2 $85,000 1 $85,000 $1.148137
48443 Terrell TX 984 C2 1 $51,000 1 $51,000 $1.026322
29087 Holt MO 4,912 C3 2 $85,000 1 $85,000 $0.988832
46049 Faulk SD 2,364 C1 1 $115,000 1 $115,000 $0.982755
29103 Knox MO 4,131 C3 2 $70,000 1 $70,000 $0.968289
46021 Campbell SD 1,466 C1 1 $70,000 1 $70,000 $0.964626
46049 Faulk SD 2,364 C2 2 $115,000 1 $115,000 $0.963294
46089 McPherson SD 2,459 C1 1 $115,000 1 $115,000 $0.944787
48443 Terrell TX 984 C1 1 $46,000 1 $46,000 $0.944403
46089 McPherson SD 2,459 C2 2 $115,000 1 $115,000 $0.926079
20017 Chase KS 2,790 C1 2 $127,000 1 $127,000 $0.919590
17171 Scott IL 5,355 C3 2 $85,000 1 $85,000 $0.907029
46107 Potter SD 2,329 C3 1 $36,900 1 $36,900 $0.905355
20003 Anderson KS 8,102 C3 2 $127,000 1 $127,000 $0.895722
46049 Faulk SD 2,364 C3 1 $36,900 1 $36,900 $0.891951




Deep Dive: Channel Availability in 2.5 GHz Overlay Licenses
The FCC is selling county-sized overlay licenses in the 2.5 GHz (2496–2690 MHz) band in this auction. In each county, up to three categories of licenses will be made available. Category C1 licenses total 49.5 MHz in size, currently consisting of nine 5.5 MHz channels. Category C2 licenses total 50.5 MHz in size, currently consisting of twenty channels between 0.33 MHz, 5 MHz and 6 MHz in size. Category C3 licenses total 17.5 MHz in size, consisting of three 0.33 MHz-channels and three 5 MHz-channels. The 5 MHz-channels are discontiguous from the 0.33 MHz-channels in these Category C3 licenses.

The FCC is selling these county-sized overlay licenses in each category unless the current incumbents cover 100% of the area of the county. The FCC considers these licenses as "fully-encumbered" and not for sale. Roughly 72% of the U.S. population will have at least one overlay license available for sale in this auction. However, as overlay licenses, winning bidders may not get full access to these spectrum licenses. Because incumbents still have a right to operate in these bands, the winning bidders will either have to avoid and protect incumbent operations or negotiate for their removal. This is why this auction is sometimes called a "white space" auction and the FCC calls these "encumbered" licenses.

The FCC has provided very nice maps of the current incumbents in each category of the 2.5 GHz band and the number of channels encumbered. We show them below, but interactive versions these maps and helpful legends can be found on the FCC's Auction 108 Mapping Tool.

FCC Encumbrance Maps
Here is the FCC's map of Category C1 (or Block 1) licenses color coded by the number of channels encumbered by current incumbents.
Here is the FCC's map of Category C2 (or Block 2) licenses color coded by the number of channels encumbered by current incumbents.
Here is the FCC's map of Category C3 (or Block 3) licenses color coded by the number of channels encumbered by current incumbents.

Finally, the FCC also provided information regarding pending Rural Tribal Applications, whose applications if accepted, would further reduce the spectrum available in counties that cover tribal areas.

We took this excellent data (including tribal applications) to do our own GIS analysis. In particular, we intersected the shape files of the licenses held by incumbents in each category and the shape files created by the tribal applications with 2 x 2 km cell population data (2010 Census)(3) to determine the population-weighted average number of channels in each county license that would be encumbered. We used the population-weighted number of channels encumbered to classify licenses in each category into "encumbrance classifications" that we can then use in more granular pricing analysis.(4)
(3) Using 2020 Census data, we found that the percentages are very similar so we stuck with the same data as the FCC is using.
(4) Because not all channels are of the same MHz in size, using the FCC's shape files, which are classified by number of channels encumbered, does not perfectly translate to MHz-POPs. However, when I applied the unencumbered channel percentages to MHz-POPs, the resulting nationwide number was in line with the 16.5% "white space" discount that FCC previously applied to spectrum in this band for spectrum screen purposes. Because of this fact, and the fact that I am using these encumbrance classifications strictly for categorical reasons rather than specific calculations, this approach should be sufficient.

It should be noted that encumbrance classifications are conservative because we assume that every tribal application will be granted regardless of current status. It should also be noted that winner of these overlay licenses in this auction made available in this auction have the right to negotiate with incumbents to further reduce the size of these encumbrances.

More specifically, these encumbrance classifications are:
Category Min % of Channels Encumbered (weighted by POPs) Max % of Channels Encumbered (weighted by POPs) Encumbrance Classification
Category C1 0% 0% C1 - 0
Category C1 > 0% < 50% (or 4.5 channels) C1 - 50
Category C1 >= 50% (or 4.5 channels) < 75% (or 6.75 channels) C1 - 75
Category C1 >= 75% (or 6.75 channels) <= 100% (or 9.0 channels) C1 - 100
Category C2 0% 0% C2 - 0
Category C2 > 0% < 50% (or 10.0 channels) C2 - 50
Category C2 >= 50% (or 10.0 channels) < 75% (or 15.0 channels) C2 - 75
Category C2 >= 75% (or 15.0 channels) <= 100% (or 20.0 channels) C2 - 100
Category C3 0% 0% C3 - 0
Category C3 > 0% < 50% (or 3.0 channels) C3 - 50
Category C3 >= 50% (or 3.0 channels) < 75% (or 4.5 channels) C3 - 75
Category C3 >= 75% (or 4.5 channels) <= 100% (or 6.0 channels) C3 - 100


To help visualize the level of encumbrances in each county based on population (which the FCC maps did not analyze), we have mapped this data into an interactive map which allows you to see the population-weighted number of channels that are encumbered for each category in a county-sized license area. Keeping in mind the caveats above (including about different licenses sizes as noted in footnote 4), these visualizations make clear those areas where wireless operations may not be possible for the winners of these overlay licenses.

Encumbrance Classifications for All Categories of Licenses:

Click Here for Interactive Map




Below is some analysis based on these encumbrance classifications. While not a recalculation of MHz-POPs, the data demonstrates how level of impairment can impact pricing.

Gross Proceeds and Price Per MHz-POP By Encumbrance Classification after Round 46:
Encumbrance Classification Gross Proceeds Price MHz POP
C1 - 0 $18,814,770 $0.051351
C1 - 50 $50,830,150 $0.032917
C1 - 75 $22,343,540 $0.016067
C1 - 100 $44,606,010 $0.007382
C2 - 0 $22,440,920 $0.067307
C2 - 50 $70,026,530 $0.047736
C2 - 75 $30,896,520 $0.023815
C2 - 100 $58,217,180 $0.007917
C3 - 0 $13,869,850 $0.044101
C3 - 50 $20,165,480 $0.038735
C3 - 75 $4,971,390 $0.026615
C3 - 100 $14,732,650 $0.007164





Additional Round-by-Round Analysis









3D Map of Gross Proceeds by Category in Each County after Round 46

Click Here for Interactive 3D Map




Treemap of Gross Proceeds in Highest Grossing Counties (Above $500K Threshold) after Round 46: (sum across all categories)




Demand Analysis
Excess or Net Demand (Demand-Supply) in Each County after Round 46:
(across all categories in each county)

Click Here for Interactive Map & Category Data



Change in Demand in Round 46 from Prior Round in Each County:
(across all categories in each county)

Click Here for Interactive Map & Category Data


20 Counties with the Largest Excess Demand after Round 46:
(across all categories in each county)

fips_code county_name population aggregate_demand supply excess_demand
66010 Guam 159,358 6 3 3
69110 Saipan 48,220 6 3 3
21035 Calloway 37,191 6 3 3
21083 Graves 37,121 6 3 3
21157 Marshall 31,448 6 3 3
02130 Ketchikan Gateway 13,477 6 3 3
54075 Pocahontas 8,719 6 3 3
21039 Carlisle 5,104 6 3 3
21105 Hickman 4,902 6 3 3
69120 Tinian 3,136 6 3 3
36019 Clinton 82,128 5 3 2
36033 Franklin 51,599 5 3 2
01031 Coffee 49,948 5 3 2
01047 Dallas 43,820 5 3 2
36031 Essex 39,370 5 3 2
01039 Covington 37,765 5 3 2
01109 Pike 32,899 5 3 2
28001 Adams 32,297 4 2 2
01099 Monroe 23,068 5 3 2
56041 Uinta 21,118 5 3 2

20 Counties with Largest Absolute Change in Demand after Round 46
from Prior Round:
(across all categories in each county)

fips_code county_name population aggregate_demand demand_change
02130 Ketchikan Gateway 13,477 6 3
36019 Clinton 82,128 5 2
19089 Howard 9,566 5 2
36065 Oneida 234,878 4 1
25001 Barnstable 215,888 4 1
23031 York 197,131 4 1
53005 Benton 175,177 4 1
19163 Scott 165,224 3 1
33017 Strafford 123,143 4 1
30063 Missoula 109,299 4 1
41019 Douglas 107,667 4 1
19061 Dubuque 93,653 3 -1
19155 Pottawattamie 93,158 4 1
24001 Allegany 75,087 4 1
41035 Klamath 66,380 4 1
36043 Herkimer 64,519 4 1
41011 Coos 63,043 4 1
55111 Sauk 61,976 4 1
72005 Aguadilla 60,949 3 1
33001 Belknap 60,088 4 1



Change in Aggregate Demand in 100 Largest Counties by Round: (across all categories)
(Double click on legend to switch to a different county)

20 Counties with Largest Absolute Change in Demand in Category C1 after Round 46
from Prior Round:

fips_code county_name category population aggregate_demand demand_change
25001 Barnstable C1 215,888 2 1
23031 York C1 197,131 2 1
53005 Benton C1 175,177 2 1
19163 Scott C1 165,224 2 1
33017 Strafford C1 123,143 2 1
41019 Douglas C1 107,667 2 1
19155 Pottawattamie C1 93,158 2 1
36019 Clinton C1 82,128 2 1
24001 Allegany C1 75,087 2 1
41035 Klamath C1 66,380 2 1
41011 Coos C1 63,043 2 1
55111 Sauk C1 61,976 2 1
72005 Aguadilla C1 60,949 2 1
33001 Belknap C1 60,088 2 1
55135 Waupaca C1 52,410 2 1
36033 Franklin C1 51,599 2 1
72023 Cabo Rojo C1 50,917 2 1
49003 Box Elder C1 49,975 2 1
33003 Carroll C1 47,818 2 1
49021 Iron C1 46,163 2 1

20 Counties with Largest Absolute Change in Demand in Category C2 after Round 46
from Prior Round:

fips_code county_name category population aggregate_demand demand_change
30063 Missoula C2 109,299 2 1
49003 Box Elder C2 49,975 1 -1
19191 Winneshiek C2 21,056 2 1
49041 Sevier C2 20,802 1 -1
35053 Socorro C2 17,866 1 -1
02130 Ketchikan Gateway C2 13,477 2 1
49027 Millard C2 12,503 1 -1
19089 Howard C2 9,566 2 1
08113 San Miguel C2 7,359 2 -1
08065 Lake C2 7,310 2 1
29171 Putnam C2 4,979 2 1
69120 Tinian C2 3,136 2 1
38037 Grant C2 2,394 2 1
49033 Rich C2 2,264 1 -1
38065 Oliver C2 1,846 2 1
38083 Sheridan C2 1,321 2 1
20 Counties with Largest Absolute Change in Demand in Category C3 after Round 46
from Prior Round:

fips_code county_name category population aggregate_demand demand_change
36065 Oneida C3 234,878 2 1
19061 Dubuque C3 93,653 1 -1
36019 Clinton C3 82,128 2 1
36043 Herkimer C3 64,519 2 1
08037 Eagle C3 52,197 1 -1
49043 Summit C3 36,324 1 -1
08097 Pitkin C3 17,148 1 -1
32013 Humboldt C3 16,528 1 -1
35057 Torrance C3 16,383 2 1
02130 Ketchikan Gateway C3 13,477 2 1
19133 Monona C3 9,243 1 -1





Tracking Auction 108's Progress Toward Completion after Round 46

NOTE: Because the prior non-logarithmic chart is somewhat skewed by the large excess demand in the early rounds, we have repeated the chart above taking the log (base 10) of the values on both axeses:


NOTE: This next chart looks at changes in excess demand in dollars after removing the impact of round price increases. Please note negative scale. Also, this chart is not relevant for Round 1 because there are no prior rounds.






Comparing Auction 108's Progress to Prior FCC Auctions after Round 46

The chart below tracks auction progress (using the metric of excess demand as a percent of aggregate demand) against other recent prior FCC auctions.

NOTE: Any comparison between Auction 97 (the AWS-3 auction and an SMRA auction) and the other auctions shown (which are all clock auctions) needs several important caveats. SMRAs have a fundamentally different structures from clocks auctions (e.g., SMRAs allow bidders to bid for specific licenses whereas in clock auctions you bid for generic blocks; SMRAs determine provisional winners after reach round whereas clock auctions just determine aggregate demand at the end of each round). Participants in an SMRA also face different rules regarding the exiting of accepted bid (e.g., a provisionally winning bidder in an SMRA is allowed to submit a withdrawal bid subject to a withdrawal penalty whereas in a clock auction a bidder may not withdraw a bid once demand equals supply). Finally, in SMRAs, bidders do not need to affirmatively bid in every round for licenses that they have provisionally won as they will have an opportunity to bid again in the next round if their provisionally winning bid is outbid in the current round. These differences make any direct comparisons difficult. Nevertheless, with all these caveats in mind and using a simple moving average to “smooth” the variations in demand that you see from round-to-round in an SMRA, I thought that it might still be interesting to make a comparison between Auction 97 and this auction.





Fun: Comparing Current County Prices to Predicted Prices at the PEA-Level Based on Prior FCC Auctions after Round 46

In the bubble graph below, we attempt to track how current prices of the 100 largest counties mapped into their corresponding PEAs (on a price per MHz pop basis) compare to their "Predicted Price" based on past FCC auctions. To accomplish this comparison, we need to introduce the concept of the "Overprice Ratio". This Overprice Ratio is the current price of each county's PEA divided by the Predicted Price for that PEA.

This Predicted Price for any county license is calculated by first identifying its relevant PEA and then classifying each PEA into its relevant REAG (an FCC licensing schema that divides the country into 6 regions) and then identifying a "Reference Market" for that REAG. Typically, the Reference Market for each REAG is the largest PEA by population (with the exception of the Southeast REAG where we selected Atlanta as its Reference Market rather than Washington DC, which we have reclassified as being in the Northeast REAG). For those PEAs that are Reference Markets, we use the New York PEA (the "Nationwide Reference Market") as their Reference Market. We then take the current price for each Reference Market and multiply it by the historical ratio of auction prices between each PEA and its Reference Market to get the Predicted Price.

The y-axis on the left shows the log (base 10) of the "Overprice Ratio." We take the log of the Overprice Ratio to lessen the impact of outliers. By definition, the New York PEA (shown in the graph as the biggest bubble in dark blue below), as the Nationwide Reference Market, will always remain at y=0 (the horizontal green line in the graph below). The y-axis on the right side of the graph tracks the current price for New York PEA (based on all the counties that fall into it) after the latest round and is adjusted so that New York PEA's price always remains on the green horizontal line in the graph below.

The x-axis shows aggregate demand in each county (regardless of category) after the latest round. There is a vertical green line where aggregate demand equals 3. This the maximum number of licenses available for sale in each county. Thus, if the bubble shows up to the right of this green vertical line, aggregate demand in this county is greater than supply. The bubbles representing the counties are sized based on their population and color-coded based on the PEA that they fall in.

Example:
Pick San Diego County. It falls into the San Diego PEA (which only has one county in the PEA ). Its Reference Market is Los Angeles.

Suppose
San Diego County current aggregate demand = 10
San Diego current price (average across categories) = $0.50
Los Angeles current price (average across categories) = $0.75
Historical ratio (San Diego/Los Angeles) = 1.09784

Compute
San Diego current Predicted Price = $0.75 * 1.09784 = $0.82338
San Diego Overprice Ratio = $0.50 / $0.82338 = 0.607253
San Diego logarithmic-scaled Overprice Ratio = Log10(0.607253) = -0.21663

Interpretation
In the logarithmic-scaled chart below, San Diego would be represented by a bubble with coordinates (x,y) = (10,-0.21663). That means San Diego is underpriced. All bubbles with negative values are underpriced; conversely, all bubbles with positive values are overpriced with respect to their Reference Market's current price. Before the Reference Market's price converges, any underpriced PEA is a valid prediction due to the non-decreasing price property; however, the converse may not be true until the Reference Market's price converges.

To get the complete list of Reference Markets, Predicted Prices and Overprice Ratios for any county see the table at the bottom of this web page.


Using this Overprice Ratio, we can then identify the licenses that represent the best "deals" at the close of each round. (5)
(5) Because these deals are based on historical comparisons at the PEA-Level, some caution is necessary. For example, a county that sits at the edge of a large PEA may look underpriced when comparing to the predicted price for the larger PEA in which it resides.

Deals Following Round 46: Most Underpriced Counties (Above 500K in Population) Relative to their Predicted Prices at the PEA-LEVEL:
County County Name FIPS Code Population Supply Aggregate Demand Gross Proceeds County Price MHz Pop PEA PEA Name PEA Price MHz Pop Reference PEA Reference PEA Name PEA Predicted Price Overprice Ratio (Log Base 10)
TN-037 Davidson 47037 626,681 2 2 $620,000 $0.009893 PEA032 Nashville, TN $0.010578 PEA030 Kansas City, MO $0.067278 -0.803476
TX-121 Denton 48121 662,614 3 3 $358,000 $0.004598 PEA008 Dallas, TX $0.005329 PEA001 New York, NY $0.010061 -0.275984
TX-085 Collin 48085 782,341 2 2 $400,000 $0.005113 PEA008 Dallas, TX $0.005329 PEA001 New York, NY $0.010061 -0.275984
CA-111 Ventura 06111 823,318 3 3 $668,000 $0.006905 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005944 PEA001 New York, NY $0.009428 -0.200332
CA-029 Kern 06029 839,631 3 3 $706,000 $0.007156 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005944 PEA001 New York, NY $0.009428 -0.200332
CA-037 Los Angeles 06037 9,818,605 3 3 $6,700,000 $0.005807 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005944 PEA001 New York, NY $0.009428 -0.200332
CA-065 Riverside 06065 2,189,641 3 2 $800,000 $0.005373 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005944 PEA001 New York, NY $0.009428 -0.200332
CA-071 San Bernardino 06071 2,035,210 3 3 $1,400,000 $0.005854 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005944 PEA001 New York, NY $0.009428 -0.200332
FL-086 Miami-Dade 12086 2,496,435 3 2 $994,000 $0.005855 PEA009 Miami, FL $0.005753 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.008479 -0.168415
FL-099 Palm Beach 12099 1,320,134 3 3 $700,000 $0.004513 PEA009 Miami, FL $0.005753 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.008479 -0.168415
NC-183 Wake 37183 900,993 2 2 $400,000 $0.004440 PEA045 Raleigh, NC $0.004881 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.007070 -0.160890
AL-073 Jefferson 01073 658,466 3 3 $260,000 $0.003360 PEA040 Birmingham, AL $0.004871 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.007015 -0.158463
OH-061 Hamilton 39061 802,374 2 2 $400,000 $0.004985 PEA025 Cincinnati, OH $0.005619 PEA003 Chicago, IL $0.007458 -0.123010
FL-095 Orange 12095 1,145,956 2 2 $600,000 $0.005236 PEA013 Orlando, FL $0.004758 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.005827 -0.087988
FL-105 Polk 12105 602,095 2 2 $200,000 $0.003322 PEA013 Orlando, FL $0.004758 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.005827 -0.087988
FL-009 Brevard 12009 543,376 2 2 $200,000 $0.003681 PEA013 Orlando, FL $0.004758 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.005827 -0.087988
AZ-013 Maricopa 04013 3,817,117 3 3 $2,500,000 $0.005574 PEA015 Phoenix, AZ $0.005574 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.006681 -0.078666
NV-003 Clark 32003 1,951,269 3 3 $1,100,000 $0.004798 PEA026 Las Vegas, NV $0.005131 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.005903 -0.060932
CA-073 San Diego 06073 3,095,313 3 1 $300,000 $0.005538 PEA018 San Diego, CA $0.005538 PEA002 Los Angeles, CA $0.006211 -0.049750
GA-121 Fulton 13121 920,581 3 3 $510,000 $0.004715 PEA011 Atlanta, GA $0.006974 PEA001 New York, NY $0.007787 -0.047924






Download to Excel or View Details on All Counties After Round 46

Selected County Details(6)
(6) Calculations in the table below are based on 2010 Census figures unless designated with a "2020" in the column title.

County County Name FIPS Category Population Population 2020 Bidding Units Supply Aggregate Demand Excess Demand Demand Change Posted Price Gross Proceeds Price Per MHz POP (for product) Price Per MHz POP 2020 (for product) Encumbrance Class PEA PEA Name Price Per MHz POP for PEA Reference Market Reference Market Name Predicted Price for PEA Overprice Ratio (Log Base10)