Sasha Javid
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Auction 105 Summary (3550-3650 MHz Band)
Gross Proceeds after Round 22: $1,540,057,989
Qualified Bidders (Clock Phase): 271
Products with Supply < Demand after Round 22: 456
Products with Supply = Demand after Round 22: 1600
Products with Supply > Demand after Round 22: 1177
Products with No Demand after Round 22: (subset of Products with Supply > Demand) 18
Nationwide Price Per MHz-POP at the end of Round 22: $0.076215


Price Per MHz POP in Each County after Round 22:

Click Here for Interactive Map



Price Per MHz-POP in Top 20 Counties (by Population) after Round 22:
county county_name census_id population supply aggregate_demand posted_price gross_proceeds price_mhz_pop
CA-037 Los Angeles, CA 06037 9,818,605 7 27 $14,568,000 $101,976,000 $0.148371
IL-031 Cook, IL 17031 5,194,675 7 22 $7,719,000 $54,033,000 $0.148594
TX-201 Harris, TX 48201 4,092,459 7 9 $6,070,000 $42,490,000 $0.148322
AZ-013 Maricopa, AZ 04013 3,817,117 7 7 $4,692,000 $32,844,000 $0.122920
CA-073 San Diego, CA 06073 3,095,313 7 25 $4,602,000 $32,214,000 $0.148676
CA-059 Orange, CA 06059 3,010,232 7 18 $4,484,000 $31,388,000 $0.148959
NY-047 Kings, NY 36047 2,504,700 7 20 $3,737,000 $26,159,000 $0.149200
FL-086 Miami-Dade, FL 12086 2,496,435 7 7 $3,382,100 $23,674,700 $0.135477
TX-113 Dallas, TX 48113 2,368,139 7 24 $3,539,000 $24,773,000 $0.149442
NY-081 Queens, NY 36081 2,230,722 7 20 $3,336,000 $23,352,000 $0.149548
CA-065 Riverside, CA 06065 2,189,641 7 17 $3,271,000 $22,897,000 $0.149385
CA-071 San Bernardino, CA 06071 2,035,210 7 17 $3,040,000 $21,280,000 $0.149370
NV-003 Clark, NV 32003 1,951,269 7 7 $2,405,000 $16,835,000 $0.123253
WA-033 King, WA 53033 1,931,249 7 7 $2,164,000 $15,148,000 $0.112052
MI-163 Wayne, MI 26163 1,820,584 7 7 $2,045,000 $14,315,000 $0.112327
TX-439 Tarrant, TX 48439 1,809,034 7 15 $2,708,000 $18,956,000 $0.149693
CA-085 Santa Clara, CA 06085 1,781,642 7 7 $2,002,000 $14,014,000 $0.112368
FL-011 Broward, FL 12011 1,748,066 7 7 $2,163,000 $15,141,000 $0.123737
TX-029 Bexar, TX 48029 1,714,773 7 16 $2,569,000 $17,983,000 $0.149816
NY-061 New York, NY 36061 1,585,873 7 22 $2,376,000 $16,632,000 $0.149823









Top 20 Counties by Price Per MHz-POP after Round 22:
county county_name census_id population supply aggregate_demand posted_price gross_proceeds price_mhz_pop
TX-301 Loving, TX 48301 82 7 12 $11,000 $77,000 $13.414634
HI-005 Kalawao, HI 15005 90 7 7 $7,200 $50,400 $8.000000
NE-007 Banner, NE 31007 690 7 7 $5,700 $39,900 $0.826087
KS-199 Wallace, KS 20199 1,485 7 11 $11,000 $77,000 $0.740741
TX-033 Borden, TX 48033 641 7 7 $4,600 $32,200 $0.717629
TX-235 Irion, TX 48235 1,599 7 10 $11,000 $77,000 $0.687930
TX-311 McMullen, TX 48311 707 7 7 $4,600 $32,200 $0.650636
TX-173 Glasscock, TX 48173 1,226 7 7 $7,700 $53,900 $0.628059
TX-431 Sterling, TX 48431 1,143 7 7 $7,000 $49,000 $0.612423
PR-049 Culebra, PR 72049 1,818 7 8 $11,000 $77,000 $0.605061
CO-079 Mineral, CO 08079 712 7 8 $4,100 $28,700 $0.575843
NE-049 Deuel, NE 31049 1,941 7 11 $11,000 $77,000 $0.566718
ND-091 Steele, ND 38091 1,975 7 9 $11,000 $77,000 $0.556962
NE-073 Gosper, NE 31073 2,044 7 11 $11,000 $77,000 $0.538160
TX-327 Menard, TX 48327 2,242 7 10 $11,000 $77,000 $0.490633
UT-033 Rich, UT 49033 2,264 7 11 $11,000 $77,000 $0.485866
CO-115 Sedgwick, CO 08115 2,379 7 11 $11,000 $77,000 $0.462379
TX-109 Culberson, TX 48109 2,398 7 12 $11,000 $77,000 $0.458716
KS-153 Rawlins, KS 20153 2,519 7 9 $11,000 $77,000 $0.436681
KS-109 Logan, KS 20109 2,756 7 10 $11,000 $77,000 $0.399129


Top 10 States by Price per MHz-POP (average of counties in the state) after Round 22:
state_abbreviation population supply aggregate_demand price_mhz_pop
PR 3,725,789 546 559 $0.152899
HI 1,360,301 35 45 $0.147482
DC 601,723 7 7 $0.138120
TX 25,145,561 1,778 1,977 $0.114126
CA 37,253,956 406 464 $0.113454
NV 2,700,551 119 112 $0.104269
IA 3,046,355 693 802 $0.099256
NE 1,826,341 651 756 $0.095950
NY 19,378,102 434 320 $0.094429
IL 12,830,632 714 751 $0.090510


Excess or Net Demand (Demand-Supply) in Each PEA after Round 22:

Click Here for Interactive Map



20 Counties with the Largest Excess Demand after Round 22:

county county_name census_id population supply aggregate_demand excess_demand
CA-037 Los Angeles, CA 06037 9,818,605 7 27 20
CA-073 San Diego, CA 06073 3,095,313 7 25 18
TX-113 Dallas, TX 48113 2,368,139 7 24 17
WI-009 Brown, WI 55009 248,007 7 23 16
TX-215 Hidalgo, TX 48215 774,769 7 22 15
IL-031 Cook, IL 17031 5,194,675 7 22 15
NY-061 New York, NY 36061 1,585,873 7 22 15
NY-047 Kings, NY 36047 2,504,700 7 20 13
NY-081 Queens, NY 36081 2,230,722 7 20 13
AL-073 Jefferson, AL 01073 658,466 7 19 12
NY-005 Bronx, NY 36005 1,385,108 7 18 11
TX-389 Reeves, TX 48389 13,783 7 18 11
CA-059 Orange, CA 06059 3,010,232 7 18 11
VA-013 Arlington, VA 51013 207,627 7 18 11
FL-057 Hillsborough, FL 12057 1,229,226 7 18 11
FL-095 Orange, FL 12095 1,145,956 7 18 11
WI-079 Milwaukee, WI 55079 947,735 7 17 10
TX-141 El Paso, TX 48141 800,647 7 17 10
CA-071 San Bernardino, CA 06071 2,035,210 7 17 10
TX-453 Travis, TX 48453 1,024,266 7 17 10


Change in Demand in Round 22 from Prior Round in Each PEA:

Click Here for Interactive Map



20 Counties with Largest Absolute Change in Demand after Round 22 from Prior Round:

county county_name census_id aggregate_demand demand_change
TX-171 Gillespie, TX 48171 11 -4
IA-191 Winneshiek, IA 19191 9 -4
IA-027 Carroll, IA 19027 7 -4
GA-057 Cherokee, GA 13057 7 -3
IA-109 Kossuth, IA 19109 8 -3
OR-043 Linn, OR 41043 7 -3
IA-043 Clayton, IA 19043 10 -3
IA-143 Osceola, IA 19143 15 -3
IL-179 Tazewell, IL 17179 8 -3
IA-081 Hancock, IA 19081 7 -3
PR-061 Guaynabo, PR 72061 8 -3
VA-143 Pittsylvania, VA 51143 7 -2
NJ-007 Camden, NJ 34007 8 -2
SC-003 Aiken, SC 45003 8 -2
MO-215 Texas, MO 29215 9 2
TX-217 Hill, TX 48217 7 -2
MO-203 Shannon, MO 29203 9 2
MO-179 Reynolds, MO 29179 9 2
MD-003 Anne Arundel, MD 24003 8 -2
PA-045 Delaware, PA 42045 8 -2


Tracking Auction 105's Progress Toward Completion after Round 22:
NOTE: Because the prior chart is somewhat skewed by the large excess demand in the early rounds, we have repeated the chart above taking the log (base 10) of the values on both axeses:

The chart below tracks auction progress (using the metric of excess demand as a percent of aggregate demand) against other recent prior FCC auctions.



Fun: Comparing Current County Prices to Predicted Prices Based on Prior FCC Auctions after Round 22:

In the graph below, the y-axis on the left shows the log (base 10) of the "Overprice Ratio." This Overprice Ratio is the current price of a county against the predicted price for that county. This predicted price is calculated by multiplying the current price of Los Angeles against the historical ratio of auction prices between that county and Los Angeles. We take the log of this ratio so that an Overprice Ratio of 1 (meaning the predicted price matches the current price perfectly) ends up at zero on the left y-axis. By definition, Los Angeles (shown in the graph as the biggest circle in yellow above), will always remain at y=0. The x-axis shows aggregate demand after the latest round. The y-axis on the right and indicated by the "X" marker in the graph is the current price for Los Angeles County after the latest round. Finally, the circles representing the counties are sized based on population and color-coded based on the PEA that they fall in.

For more information on this graph see my article on Linkedin.